Miami Heat

Entering the fourth quarter of a must-win playoff game, they trailed the Bulls by a point.

And now, after being underdogs in every playoff series, they find themselves just four games away from the NBA title.

How big of an underdog does the Heat have? Well, if you believe in the efficiency of the betting market, the answer is the biggest loser of at least the past 30 years.

Consider this: If you bet $10 on the Heat reaching the NBA Finals at the start of the playoffs, you’d stand to make a whopping $600 profit. Winning the Eastern Conference by +6000, their implied probability of making it this far is only 1.6%.

According to historical odds, these odds are undoubtedly the lowest in the past 15 years. The next biggest underdog is the 2020 Heat, led by Jimmy Butler.

That team is +1450 to win the East at the start of the playoffs, implying an implied probability of 6.5%.

Biggest underdog to reach the NBA Finals at the start of playoffs since 2008-09

The odds of reaching the Finals are at most 15 years, but the odds of winning the title do. At the start of this year’s playoffs, the Heat have a 0.8% chance of winning all of them, with a score of +12,500. These are (again) the lowest odds in the past 30 years.

The 1999 Knicks were the second-worst underdog to win an entire game. At +3,000, they start the playoffs on a 3.2 percent implied field goal percentage. That team was the only eighth seed to reach the Finals. They ultimately fizzled out, losing to the Spurs in five games.

Interestingly, the Nuggets also started the playoffs as the biggest underdog in history, even though they made it to the Finals as the Number 1 seed in the Western Conference. That means, whichever team wins, we’ll have one of the most surprising titles of the past 30 years.

Biggest underdog to win the NBA title at the start of playoffs since 1992-93